Khartoum, Sudan — A recent study jointly conducted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group indicates that the death toll in Sudan’s ongoing conflict may greatly surpass previous estimates. Over 61,000 deaths were recorded in Khartoum state alone during the first 14 months of the conflict that began in April 2023, which includes a purported 26,000 violent deaths. This figure starkly contrasts with the United Nations’ current countrywide count.
Researchers are suggesting that starvation and disease have now overtaken direct violence as the leading causes of death, as the conflict continues to inflict severe damage on the nation’s infrastructure and health systems. With nearly half the country requiring humanitarian aid, Sudan faces the world’s largest hunger crisis, exacerbated by a war that has displaced 11 million people.
The study utilized a “capture-recapture” method to estimate the deaths, a technique initially designed for ecological studies but increasingly used in conflict zones. This method applies multiple overlapping data sources to create a statistical model that estimates the number of unreported deaths. Three different lists of deceased individuals were compiled using social media, community networks, and a public survey to support the findings.
Despite the researchers’ comprehensive method, their efforts faced significant challenges. Many deaths in Sudan go unrecorded even during peacetime, and the chaotic conditions wrought by the war only magnify these issues. Vital infrastructural links, such as hospitals and registration facilities, are inaccessible due to ongoing conflicts, further complicating accurate reporting.
Paul Spiegel, director of the Center for Humanitarian Health at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and not involved in the study, praised the methodology. Although acknowledging potential biases in the data sources, Spiegel regarded the attempt to map the conflict’s dead as crucial given the situation’s severity.
The ground realities in Sudan provide a grim picture. For instance, in Omdurman’s Mulazmeen neighborhood, residents have resorted to burying their dead next to their homes due to inaccessibility to graveyards. Healthcare access is sporadically blocked, and essential supplies are dangerously scant. Abdulazim Awadalla, program manager at the Sudanese American Physicians Association, suggested that the actual death toll might be higher than estimated due to diseases borne of malnutrition weakening immune systems.
The rapid escalation of the conflict stems from a power tussle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with both aiming for dominance following a planned transition to civilian rule. Accusations of war crimes have been levelled at both parties by a U.N. fact-finding mission, and the conflict has exacerbated ethnic violence in the western Darfur region.
The resurgence of the army in parts of greater Khartoum brings a faint glimmer of hope as supply routes begin to reopen, facilitating the slow return of essentials like food and medicine which are critical in combating widespread malnutrition—affecting especially the most vulnerable populations such as pregnant women and children.
This profound human tragedy underlines the broader impact of Sudan’s ongoing conflict, underscoring the urgent need for international intervention and a renewed focus on humanitarian support to address both the direct and indirect consequences of the war.