London, United Kingdom — A recent study conducted by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine reveals significantly higher fatalities in Gaza due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas than previously reported by official sources. The report, issued Thursday and published in The Lancet, a medical journal, indicates more than 64,000 Palestinians perished from October 2023 to June 2024, notably higher than the Gaza Health Ministry’s count of 37,877 deaths.
The researchers employed a method known as capture-recapture analysis to estimate the death toll. This approach involves comparing three varied data sources to identify common cases and estimate the number of unreported deaths. The sources included official records from hospitals and morgues, an online survey asking families about deceased relatives, and obituaries posted on social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook.
The Lancet report highlighted that a significant proportion of the deceased, about 59%, comprised women, children, and the elderly. This demographic distribution aligns roughly with other independent assessments. On the other hand, the United Nations conducted its own analysis in a limited period between November 2023 and April 2024, confirming that 44% of the verified casualties were children, while women accounted for 26%.
This study did not account for indirect deaths related to the conflict, such as those caused by lack of access to healthcare or other non-violent factors. “The number of mortalities might actually be higher if we considered factors such as non-access to healthcare, heart attacks, infectious diseases, and complications during pregnancy,” stated Zeina Jamaluddine, a co-author of the report.
The methodology used by the London School’s researchers is not new; it has been applied in various global conflicts to estimate death tolls, including in Sudan, Yemen, and Kosovo. Some of these studies have even contributed to international legal assessments.
Regarding the ongoing military offensive, Israel initiated the war following a Hamas cross-border attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in over 1,200 fatalities, predominantly among civilians, and the abduction of more than 240 individuals. Presently, almost 100 hostages remain in captivity, with about a third presumed deceased.
Israel has consistently defended its military strategy, emphasizing its efforts to minimize civilian casualties by providing advance warnings and establishing safe zones for evacuations. However, accusations persist from various international quarters that Hamas employs civilians as human shields, complicating the Israeli military’s operational environment.
The Israeli embassy in London reacted to the report, criticizing its credibility and accusing The Lancet of harboring an anti-Israel bias. “The continual dissemination of misinformation not only aids Hamas but also irresponsibly contributes to the escalation of anti-Jewish sentiments worldwide,” the embassy stated.
The veracity of the death toll figures and the conditions on the ground remain challenging to verify independently, as Israel restricts foreign media access to Gaza. This restriction leaves a significant gap in direct reporting from the area, thereby complicating the global understanding of the humanitarian impact of the conflict.