New Study Reveals Stark Death Toll in Khartoum Exceeds UN Estimates Amid Sudan’s Escalating Conflict

Khartoum, Sudan — An alarming new report reveals that the death toll in Sudan’s ongoing conflict has exceeded 61,000 in Khartoum state alone during the first 14 months, a figure that starkly surpasses previous estimates and underscores the devastating impact of the war on the nation’s populace. This assessment, derived from researchers in Britain and Sudan, points to a grim scenario where violence, disease, and starvation combine to escalate the human costs of the conflict.

The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group conducted the preprint study, highlighting not only the fatalities from direct violence — approximately 26,000 deaths — but also those resulting from indirect causes such as inadequate medical care and malnutrition. The comprehensive nature of the report preempts its peer review, underscoring the urgency to disseminate these findings.

Before the conflict, which erupted in April 2023 between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, Sudan’s overall mortality rates were already a concern. However, the current death rate in Khartoum state has surged to 50% above the national average, as per the researchers’ findings.

The United Nations has drawn global attention to the severe displacement caused by the war, with around 11 million people forced from their homes, and Sudan now experiencing the world’s most acute hunger crisis. Nearly half of the country’s population, about 25 million people, require humanitarian assistance, with cases of famine already confirmed.

The challenge of accounting for the deceased in such a chaotic environment cannot be overstated. Many in Sudan traditionally suffer from the lack of systematic civil registration even during peacetime, making accurate death counts during conflict nearly impossible. The situation is exacerbated as many are cut off from essential services and international communication owing to frequent disruptions in internet and telecom services.

Maysoon Dahab, the study’s lead author and co-director of the Sudan Research Group, elaborated on the innovative approach they adopted termed “capture-recapture,” initially a method used in ecological studies. By applying this technique, which involves compiling data from multiple independent sources and assessing overlaps, researchers aim to unveil the often “invisible” fatalities of the conflict.

For their study, researchers collected three distinct lists of deceased individuals through various means, including a public survey shared on social media, data from “study ambassadors” who leveraged their networks, and obituaries widely posted online across the urban expanse of Khartoum, Omdurman, and Bahri — the conglomerate area forming the greater capital.

This meticulous process hopes not only to provide a clearer picture of the fatality figures but also to lay the groundwork for better international responses. However, the persisting conflict presents continuous challenges in delivering aid and assessing the full scale of human suffering.

Therein lies a broader implication of such research: drawing global attention to dire humanitarian needs. As the situation in Sudan continues to unfold, the international community faces significant pressures to respond more effectively to the crises spurred by the conflict, particularly to prevent further loss of life and societal collapse in one of Africa’s significant nations.