Hurricanes may be deadlier than previously recognized, with a new study revealing they indirectly contribute to far more American deaths each year than previously reported by official counts. Researchers from Stanford University and the University of California Berkeley have discovered that the death toll from hurricanes could be exponentially higher when factoring in long-term impacts that span over decades.
The study, published in the journal Nature, estimates that each hurricane hitting the U.S. could be responsible for the premature deaths of 7,000 to 11,000 people over a 15-year period following the event. This figure starkly contrasts with the government’s immediate death toll, which averages about 24 people per storm. The researchers call attention to the breadth and depth of a hurricane’s impact, cutting a swathe of indirect fatalities largely overlooked in previous assessments.
Solomon Hsiang, a climate economist at Stanford and co-author of the study, emphasized the cumulative toll of these storms. “Each hurricane sets off a cascade of health, economic, and infrastructural challenges that can persist for years,” Hsiang noted. This progression continues as subsequent storms aggravate the situation, repeatedly striking communities that are still in recovery phases from earlier disasters.
The methodology used by researchers is not unlike those applied to analyze other health crises like heat waves or pollution. By examining historical data on death rates from 1930 to 2015 across states affected by 501 different hurricanes, the team detected consistent ‘bumps’ in mortality rates—subtle yet statistically significant spikes that conventional assessments missed.
The reasons behind these extended mortality rates post-hurricanes are complex and multifaceted, according to the researchers. They suggest that prolonged stress, environmental degradation, a lack of access to healthcare or necessities due to economic hardship, and changes in governmental spending could all be contributing factors. Such conditions could lead to deaths recorded under seemingly unrelated medical issues like heart attacks or respiratory failure.
Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who was not involved in the study, pointed out the hidden nature of these hurricane-related deaths. “The excess deaths occurring long after the storms are not necessarily marked as such,” Dessler explained. “It’s something you can only detect through detailed statistical analysis.”
The scale of the findings was initially met with skepticism by the researchers themselves. “The idea that these hurricanes were having such a long and broad impact was something we wrestled with comprehensively, confirming our findings repeatedly,” said Hsiang. Their rigorous examination unveiled a staggering implication: storms could be implicated in 55,000 to 88,000 excess deaths annually.
This extended impact of hurricanes shifts the perception from being mere meteorological events to significant public health threats. According to the study, hurricanes have indirectly contributed to more deaths than the cumulative fatalities from all U.S. wars or car accidents over the studied 85 years. These revelations align with growing concerns about climate change and population growth, which the authors believe could exacerbate future impacts.
The study’s findings have prompted discussions on the broader implications of storm preparedness and the long-term health of populations in hurricane-prone areas. Kristen Corbosiero, a hurricane expert from the University of Albany, confirmed the importance of these findings, noting the staggering implications of such long-term analysis.
Experts agree that this study could change the way policymakers and public health officials plan for and respond to hurricanes, highlighting a critical need for strategies that address not just immediate impacts but also the enduring ripple effects of these devastating storms on human health and community stability.