DÜSSELDORF, Germany — The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is facing a challenging lead-up to local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia, where recent weeks have seen the deaths of six candidates, stirring speculation and concern. Authorities have stated that there is no indication of foul play, but the incidents require the printing of new ballots and necessitate that some postal voters cast their votes anew.
As one of Germany’s most populous states, North Rhine-Westphalia is home to 18 million residents. The local elections are set for September 14, with approximately 20,000 candidates vying for office. The unexpected deaths have triggered discussions on social media, prompting some users to voice suspicions about the circumstances surrounding the candidates’ passings. While the AfD is at the center of this scrutiny, the state’s interior ministry pointed out that candidates from other political parties, including the Greens and Social Democrats, have also died.
In February, the AfD emerged as Germany’s second-largest political party during federal elections, expanding its influence beyond its traditional base in the eastern regions. However, its ascent has also drawn the attention of the country’s domestic intelligence agency, which categorized it as a right-wing extremist group earlier this year, only to suspend this classification while an appeal is pending.
Initially, reports highlighted four deaths among the party’s candidates, but the situation worsened with the revelation of two additional reserve candidates who also passed away. This series of events has fueled conspiracy theories across various social media platforms. Alice Weidel, co-leader of the AfD, has contributed to the speculation by sharing claims from a retired economist who labeled the frequency of these deaths as “statistically improbable.”
Kay Gottschalk, a key figure in the AfD within North Rhine-Westphalia, called for a thorough investigation into the deaths. He expressed cautious optimism regarding the inquiry, emphasizing the need to respect the grieving families while also addressing the party’s concerns. “What I have in front of me—though it’s partial information—does not substantiate these theories currently,” he said during a podcast interview.
According to police reports, the initial four deaths have been attributed either to natural causes or remain undisclosed for privacy concerns. The two additional deaths follow a similar pattern regarding a lack of detailed information.
The AfD views the upcoming local elections as a critical opportunity to capitalize on discontent following the establishment of the new federal government. Results from the previous state elections in May 2022 indicated that the party managed only 5.4% of the vote in a region marked by significant economic challenges. However, the recent federal elections saw the AfD’s support surge to 16.8%, prompting hopes of replicating that momentum in the forthcoming elections.
Notably, support for the AfD has not only emerged domestically. Several prominent figures from the U.S. political right have vocalized backing for the party, accusing the German government of attempting to suppress its influence through various bureaucratic measures. Among those is tech billionaire Elon Musk, who reiterated his endorsement of the AfD’s migration policies, expressing a stark view: “Either Germany votes AfD, or it is the end of Germany.”
As the elections approach, the AfD’s strategy will likely hinge on navigating the complex landscape of public sentiment in the wake of tragedy, while also aiming to capitalize on recent gains and address lingering concerns among voters.